Seismologists Predict Major Earthquake Will Hit West Coast

After watching countless hours of Japanese tsunami video, I couldn't help but wonder about the destruction a tsunami would cause here in America. And apparently, I'm not the only one.

More Americans are now worrying about a potential threat of an earthquake and tsunami, especially on the West Coast. And unfortunately, it's moving toward becoming a reality as predictions are far from optimistic.

Seismologists from the California Institute of Technology Seismological Laboratory ("or Caltech") have calculated a 99.7 percent chance of an earthquake of 7.0 or more to hit the West Coast within the next 30 years. Studies have also shown that an earthquake of this magnitude is powerful enough to cause a tsunami.

According to National Geographic, roughly 80 percent of the tsunamis that do occur, happen on the Pacific Ocean's "Ring of Fire."

Although the March 11 disaster in Japan was caused by an incredibly powerful 9.0 quake, an earthquake of 7.0 could still cause a tremendous amount of damage and casualties.

Japanese officials have now reported a death toll of 14,435, while 11,601 people still remain missing. It is the deadliest Japanese disaster in nearly a century.

Evening News: Could The West Coast Be Next?

The Next Coast?

Seismologists have been studying the plates under the San Andreas Fault for as long as we can remember. But after the horrifying events in Japan last month, the fear that a major earthquake will hit the West Coast has increased.

In fact, it is now more than just a fear. Seismologists from the California Institute of Technology Seismological Laboratory have confirmed that there is nearly a 100 percent chance of an earthquake, measuring 7.0 or greater, to hit the coast sometime in the next 30 years.

In an interview with CBS earlier this month, seismologist James Gaherty compared the earthquake and tsunami in Japan to what we could potentially see here in America.

"The Pacific Northwest has the same kind of characteristics as the fault beneath Japan," he said. "We're worried about a large subduction zone similar to Japan."

Many other seismologists fear that the West Coast is the last missing piece along the "Ring of Fire" to experience major plate movement.

"If you think of the Pacific plate as a square, we have had a major earthquake in the Northwestern side of that square, in Japan," Simon Winchester said in an interview with MSNBC. "On February 22 we had Christchurch in New Zealand in the Southwest of the square. Last year we had a major earthquake in Chile in the Southeast of that square. The fourth leg of the square, the fourth side, is where the San Andreas and the Cascadia forms. That hasn't ruptured, but if either does, there could be major problems."

California's San Andreas Fault hasn't ruptured in over 100 years, since crumbling the city of San Francisco in 1906. As for the present, seismologists can only hope that if their predictions do come true, the damage is far less than what Japan experienced. The March 11 tragedy is the deadliest Japanese disaster in almost a century, killing nearly 15,000 people.

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